History is calling - MARKETS ARE REMARKABLE
AN END OF MARCH 2026 OUTLOOK
History is our teacher as we look outward to a complex marketplace in uncertain times
As we closeout March, many investors are understandably watching markets with caution. Global headlines continue to highlight geopolitical tensions, shifting interest‑rate expectations, and questions about the pace of economic growth. While uncertainty can feel uncomfortable, it’s also a familiar part of the investing landscape.
I want to share both a snapshot of current themes and a reminder from history: markets have a remarkable ability to recover and advance even through periods of war, conflict, and global stress.
Market Overview: Themes to Watch
Interest Rates: Central banks, including the Bank of Canada, continue to signal a data‑dependent approach. Inflation has cooled from its peak, but policymakers remain cautious.
Equity Markets: Volatility has picked up, but corporate earnings have been more resilient than many expected.
Commodities: Energy and metals, important sectors for Canada, remain sensitive to global supply disruptions and geopolitical developments.
Canadian Dollar: The CAD has been relatively stable, though global risk sentiment continues to influence its direction.
Periods like this often test investor patience, but they also create opportunities for disciplined, long‑term strategies.
History Reminds Us: Markets Recover Through Conflict
It’s easy to feel like today’s uncertainty is unprecedented, but history tells a different story. Over the past century, global markets have endured and recovered from some of the most challenging periods imaginable.
| Conflict | Period Measured | Total Return | Annualized Return |
|---|---|---|---|
Wartime Average (across 8 conflicts):+11.9% annualized, compared with +10.0% in peacetime.
Why do markets recover?
Economies adjust faster than headlines suggest
Innovation continues even in difficult times
Companies adapt to new realities
Long‑term growth trends overpower short‑term shocks
The pattern is clear: while conflict creates volatility, it has not derailed long‑term market growth.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
Periods of uncertainty are when long‑term planning matters most. A well‑diversified portfolio that is aligned with your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance remains the most reliable way to navigate unpredictable markets.
Here’s what I’m focusing on;
Ensuring portfolios remain aligned with long‑term objectives
Looking for opportunities created by short‑term volatility
Maintaining a disciplined approach rather than reacting to headlines
Reviewing cash flow needs and ensuring liquidity where appropriate
Staying invested through uncertainty has historically rewarded patient investors.
Looking Ahead
As we move into April, I’ll continue monitoring economic data, central‑bank commentary, and global developments. If you’d like to review your portfolio or discuss how current conditions relate to your long‑term plan, I’m always here to help.
Wishing you a steady and optimistic start to spring.
Best regards,
Matthew Bishop
Financial Advisor